V-Lab
Garovaglio Zorraquin SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
7,125.82
increased by 1,469.66
1 Week
6,291.12
increased by 634.96
1 Month
6,651.95
increased by 995.79
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 29, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 475 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5448 | 4.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1226 | 6.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8759 | 48.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3471 | -1.25 |
| γ2 | 1.0213 | 2.12** |
| γ3 | -1.4125 | -3.60*** |
| γ4 | 1.1631 | 3.74*** |
| γ5 | -0.7444 | -3.40*** |
| γ6 | 0.7917 | 5.63*** |
| γ7 | -0.9829 | -9.71*** |
| γ8 | 0.5356 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
475 days
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