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Garovaglio Zorraquin SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

7,125.82

increased by 1,469.66

1 Week

6,291.12

increased by 634.96

1 Month

6,651.95

increased by 995.79

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Garovaglio Zorraquin SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 29, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 475 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5448
4.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1226
6.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8759
48.34***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.3471
-1.25
γ21.0213
2.12**
γ3-1.4125
-3.60***
γ41.1631
3.74***
γ5-0.7444
-3.40***
γ60.7917
5.63***
γ7-0.9829
-9.71***
γ80.5356
2.00**

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

475 days