V-Lab
Garovaglio Zorraquin SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
10,930.90
1 Week
9,866.19
1 Month
11,080.16
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 29, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1702 | 0.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8902 | 126.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1702 | -0.22 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9850 | 54.77*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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