V-Lab
Fnac Darty SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
7,214.14
increased by 2,796.90
1 Week
4,299.91
decreased by 117.33
1 Month
6,032.13
increased by 1,614.89
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1980 | 9.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1139 | 11.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8801 | 78.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0049 | -0.65 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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