Flywire Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
663.23
increased by 0.70
1 Week
669.19
increased by 6.66
1 Month
683.72
increased by 21.19
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 59 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1579 | 7.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0836 | 6.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9047 | 68.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0759 | -1.71* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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