Flywire Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
722.35
1 Week
675.29
1 Month
714.55
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0664 | 8.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9087 | 221.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0664 | -6.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.6671 | 48.13*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9927 | 552.70*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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