Flywire Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
700.14
increased by 45.28
1 Week
634.05
decreased by 20.81
1 Month
677.10
increased by 22.24
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 159% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0344 | 7.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9319 | 335.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0549 | 7.05*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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