V-Lab
Enghouse Systems Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,026.91
increased by 416.77
1 Week
3,668.00
increased by 57.86
1 Month
3,449.42
decreased by 160.72
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5322 | 5.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0503 | 4.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9307 | 44.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3452 | -1.69* |
| γ2 | 0.5223 | 1.50 |
| γ3 | -0.1155 | -0.50 |
| γ4 | -0.3263 | -1.78* |
| γ5 | 0.3091 | 1.78* |
| γ6 | 0.0942 | 0.70 |
| γ7 | -0.2123 | -2.26** |
| γ8 | 0.2266 | 2.75*** |
| γ9 | -0.3947 | -3.68*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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