V-Lab
Emirates Central Cooling Sys Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
4,490.01
increased by 2,224.28
1 Week
2,737.23
increased by 471.50
1 Month
2,423.35
increased by 157.62
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2242 | 7.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0910 | 3.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8010 | 13.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1258 | -1.78* |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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