V-Lab
Emirates Central Cooling Sys Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
3,693.13
increased by 1,732.72
1 Week
2,339.88
increased by 379.47
1 Month
2,019.14
increased by 58.73
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.41 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0700 | 6.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9448 | 187.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0296 | -2.07** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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