V-Lab
Electra Real Estate Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
7,340.20
decreased by 186.44
1 Week
7,595.40
increased by 68.76
1 Month
5,157.23
decreased by 2,369.41
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 22, 2005 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 814 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0918 | 4.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1333 | 10.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8659 | 65.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0791 | 1.15 |
| γ2 | -0.2876 | -2.88*** |
| γ3 | 0.4774 | 4.67*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
814 days
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