V-Lab
Electra Real Estate Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
7,161.50
1 Week
7,384.94
1 Month
4,826.41
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 22, 2005 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1429 | 0.56 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8753 | 247.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0457 | -0.10 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0453 | 0.87 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9882 | 77.38*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
151 days
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