V-Lab
Elco Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
7,085.91
increased by 2,740.68
1 Week
4,533.37
increased by 188.14
1 Month
4,456.82
increased by 111.59
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 24, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1175 | 3.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1292 | 5.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8572 | 42.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0033 | -1.65* |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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