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V-Lab

Elco Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

7,085.91

increased by 2,740.68

1 Week

4,533.37

increased by 188.14

1 Month

4,456.82

increased by 111.59

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Elco Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 24, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1175
3.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1292
5.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8572
42.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0033
-1.65*

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days