V-Lab
Elco Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
6,490.51
1 Week
4,562.40
1 Month
4,598.85
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 24, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 6.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8917 | 322.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0327 | -1.27 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9995 | 1,150.21*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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