V-Lab
Everforth Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
1,284.23
decreased by 71.49
1 Week
1,341.57
decreased by 14.15
1 Month
1,622.09
increased by 266.37
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 22, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7801 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0920 | 8.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9002 | 76.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1371 | -3.84*** |
| γ2 | 0.2041 | 3.86*** |
| γ3 | -0.0960 | -3.04*** |
| γ4 | 0.0331 | 1.25 |
| γ5 | 0.0131 | 0.45 |
| γ6 | -0.0066 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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