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V-Lab

Ellington Credit Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, April 1st, 2025

1 Day

3,334.11

decreased by 54.02

1 Week

2,997.17

decreased by 390.96

1 Month

2,190.85

decreased by 1,197.28

Analysis last updated: Monday, March 31, 2025 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ellington Credit Co ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2013 to Mar 28, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0278
4.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1523
14.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8427
75.84***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0442
-3.67***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days