Ellington Credit Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, April 1st, 2025
1 Day
3,334.11
decreased by 54.02
1 Week
2,997.17
decreased by 390.96
1 Month
2,190.85
decreased by 1,197.28
Analysis last updated: Monday, March 31, 2025 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2013 to Mar 28, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0278 | 4.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1523 | 14.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8427 | 75.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0442 | -3.67*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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