Ellington Credit Co ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, April 1st, 2025
1 Day
3,292.80
1 Week
2,900.28
1 Month
2,142.75
Analysis last updated: Monday, March 31, 2025 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2013 to Mar 28, 2025Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1499 | 0.27 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7591 | 35.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1499 | -0.13 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.75 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5320 | 0.72 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4680 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.834
Half-life:
4 days
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