V-Lab
Dynemic Products Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
4,698.08
decreased by 368.10
1 Week
5,294.50
increased by 228.32
1 Month
5,230.37
increased by 164.19
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 3, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8150 | 4.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1298 | 0.54 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8702 | 3.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0360 | -0.10 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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