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Deep Yellow Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

5,273.96

increased by 23.08

1 Week

5,255.91

increased by 5.03

1 Month

4,734.18

decreased by 516.70

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deep Yellow Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0888
0.03
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0848
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9152
0.02
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0566
0.00
γ20.4712
0.00
γ3-1.4324
-0.01
γ41.2719
0.00
γ51.0218
0.00
γ6-2.3432
0.00
γ71.1837
0.01
γ8-0.0713
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days