V-Lab
Deep Yellow Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
5,273.96
increased by 23.08
1 Week
5,255.91
increased by 5.03
1 Month
4,734.18
decreased by 516.70
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0888 | 0.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0848 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9152 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0566 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.4712 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -1.4324 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 1.2719 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 1.0218 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -2.3432 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 1.1837 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -0.0713 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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