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V-Lab

Develia Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

5,287.37

increased by 494.64

1 Week

5,170.19

increased by 377.46

1 Month

5,526.26

increased by 733.53

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 12:44 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Develia Sa ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 3, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 162 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0045
5.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0916
8.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9041
70.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0185
-4.27***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

162 days