V-Lab
Develia Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
5,287.37
increased by 494.64
1 Week
5,170.19
increased by 377.46
1 Month
5,526.26
increased by 733.53
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 12:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 162 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0045 | 5.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0916 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9041 | 70.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0185 | -4.27*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
162 days
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