V-Lab
Develia Sa Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
4,644.58
1 Week
4,791.01
1 Month
5,552.30
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 12:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 98% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0494 | 17.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9264 | 476.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0484 | 11.35*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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