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Develia Sa Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

4,644.58

increased by 148.93

1 Week

4,791.01

increased by 295.36

1 Month

5,552.30

increased by 1,056.65

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 12:44 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Develia Sa ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 3, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 98% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0494
17.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9264
476.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0484
11.35***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days