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Deep Value Driller As Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

14,411.68

increased by 13,934.75

1 Week

3,313.03

increased by 2,836.10

1 Month

1,541.26

increased by 1,064.33

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Deep Value Driller As ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 18, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0035
3.32***
αARCH0.2133
3.42***
βGARCH0.5486
4.99***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-26.0924
-3.15***
γ240.7821
3.07***
γ3-20.6438
-2.77***
γ49.5948
2.74***
γ5-4.0389
-1.88*
γ6-1.0976
-0.58
γ74.0152
2.12**
γ8-6.5882
-3.20***
γ96.1720
2.71***
γ10-1.8482
-0.66

0.762

Persistence

3d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0035
3.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2133
3.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5486
4.99***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-26.0924
-3.15***
γ240.7821
3.07***
γ3-20.6438
-2.77***
γ49.5948
2.74***
γ5-4.0389
-1.88*
γ6-1.0976
-0.58
γ74.0152
2.12**
γ8-6.5882
-3.20***
γ96.1720
2.71***
γ10-1.8482
-0.66

Persistence:

0.762

Half-life:

3 days