Deep Value Driller As ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
9,185.34
1 Week
2,605.34
1 Month
2,075.98
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 29% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.1280 | 10.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8442 | 80.13*** |
| γleverage | 0.0374 | 2.78*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9989 | 351.71*** |
0.991
Persistence76d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1280 | 10.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8442 | 80.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0374 | 2.78*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9989 | 351.71*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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