Dusit Thani PCL Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
4,846.81
increased by 489.37
1 Week
5,056.71
increased by 699.27
1 Month
5,248.70
increased by 891.26
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 15, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1476 | 5.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1859 | 4.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8042 | 18.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2272 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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