Dusit Thani PCL ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
4,790.12
1 Week
5,024.68
1 Month
5,101.95
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 15, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 44719 trading days (~177.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1321 | 1.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7752 | 10.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1854 | 1.85* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2657 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9995 | 2.33** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0005 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
44719 days
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