V-Lab
De Tam Jsc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
9,604.00
increased by 4,921.52
1 Week
4,847.50
increased by 165.02
1 Month
3,607.77
decreased by 1,074.71
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2010 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5269 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2053 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7947 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -2.0823 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 2.5603 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -1.3152 | -0.10 |
| γ4 | 1.8006 | 0.12 |
| γ5 | -3.0787 | -0.01 |
| γ6 | 4.5865 | 0.01 |
| γ7 | -3.5275 | -0.01 |
| γ8 | 2.0629 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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