DocMorris AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
5,292.88
decreased by 464.80
1 Week
5,725.90
decreased by 31.78
1 Month
6,089.89
increased by 332.21
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 6, 2017 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 10045 trading days (~39.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~10045 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0148 | 6.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.0970 | 10.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9030 | 95.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0570 | -1.02 |
1.000
Persistence10045d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0148 | 6.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0970 | 10.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9030 | 95.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0570 | -1.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
10045 days
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