DocMorris AG Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
4,647.56
decreased by 322.02
1 Week
5,091.80
increased by 122.22
1 Month
5,436.61
increased by 467.03
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 6, 2017 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 416 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 168% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~416 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 168% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.89 |
| αARCH | 0.0379 | 3.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9286 | 120.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.0636 | 3.56*** |
0.998
Persistence416d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.89 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0379 | 3.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9286 | 120.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0636 | 3.56*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
416 days
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