V-Lab
De' Longhi SpA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
2,360.05
increased by 673.62
1 Week
1,938.11
increased by 251.68
1 Month
2,006.85
increased by 320.42
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 23, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 183 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5078 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1529 | 6.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8433 | 37.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -0.25 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
183 days
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