Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche S.p.A. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
4,739.61
decreased by 143.98
1 Week
4,760.41
decreased by 123.18
1 Month
5,185.00
increased by 301.41
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7132 | 1.26 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1197 | 0.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8803 | 1.24 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1112 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.0058 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.2659 | 0.84 |
| γ4 | -0.2297 | -1.33 |
| γ5 | 0.0848 | 0.94 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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