Datagroup Se Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
616,047.60
decreased by 31,327.60
1 Week
617,849.88
decreased by 29,525.32
1 Month
624,171.16
decreased by 23,204.04
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 62 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5501 | 1.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1835 | 6.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8053 | 23.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -3.3568 | -4.93*** |
| γ2 | 5.1563 | 5.05*** |
| γ3 | -2.8807 | -3.95*** |
| γ4 | 1.8222 | 2.11** |
| γ5 | -2.0527 | -2.07** |
| γ6 | 2.7717 | 2.16** |
| γ7 | -2.0080 | -1.86* |
| γ8 | 0.9818 | 1.94* |
| γ9 | -1.3326 | -3.83*** |
| γ10 | 3.0994 | 6.28*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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