V-Lab
Datagroup Se Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7,265,230.00
decreased by 2,575,062.00
1 Week
10,248,809.00
increased by 408,517.00
1 Month
3,944,801.05
decreased by 5,895,490.95
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 65.0193 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3613 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6387 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.5659 | -0.42 |
| γ2 | 4.2155 | 0.10 |
| γ3 | -2.7968 | -0.04 |
| γ4 | 1.9355 | 0.09 |
| γ5 | -2.0271 | -0.04 |
| γ6 | 2.6370 | 0.03 |
| γ7 | -1.9695 | -0.05 |
| γ8 | 1.0474 | 0.11 |
| γ9 | -1.5052 | -0.02 |
| γ10 | 3.8721 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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