Skip to main content
V-Lab

Datagroup Se Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

7,265,230.00

decreased by 2,575,062.00

1 Week

10,248,809.00

increased by 408,517.00

1 Month

3,944,801.05

decreased by 5,895,490.95

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Datagroup Se ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

65.0193
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3613
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6387
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.5659
-0.42
γ24.2155
0.10
γ3-2.7968
-0.04
γ41.9355
0.09
γ5-2.0271
-0.04
γ62.6370
0.03
γ7-1.9695
-0.05
γ81.0474
0.11
γ9-1.5052
-0.02
γ103.8721
0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days