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CWD Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

6,993.74

increased by 3,821.40

1 Week

4,066.66

increased by 894.32

1 Month

3,432.17

increased by 259.83

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CWD Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 13, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1458
4.55***
αARCH0.1047
5.03***
βGARCH0.8677
35.12***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2479
-3.42***

0.972

Persistence

25d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1458
4.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1047
5.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8677
35.12***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2479
-3.42***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

25 days