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V-Lab

CWD Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

7,473.49

increased by 2,822.21

1 Week

5,302.28

increased by 651.00

1 Month

5,212.01

increased by 560.73

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CWD Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 13, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2237
4.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1017
4.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8684
33.76***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2059
-2.48**

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days