V-Lab
CWD Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
6,993.74
increased by 3,821.40
1 Week
4,066.66
increased by 894.32
1 Month
3,432.17
increased by 259.83
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 13, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1458 | 4.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.1047 | 5.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8677 | 35.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2479 | -3.42*** |
0.972
Persistence25d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1458 | 4.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1047 | 5.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8677 | 35.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2479 | -3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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