V-Lab
Consolidated Water Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
5,178.29
decreased by 164.16
1 Week
5,321.46
decreased by 20.99
1 Month
4,398.94
decreased by 943.51
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0052 | 2.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0996 | 7.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8860 | 49.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.4360 | -5.28*** |
| γ2 | 0.6156 | 4.95*** |
| γ3 | -0.1542 | -2.09** |
| γ4 | -0.0643 | -1.35 |
| γ5 | 0.0798 | 2.05** |
| γ6 | -0.1065 | -2.93*** |
| γ7 | 0.1202 | 2.34** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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