V-Lab
Contango Silver & Gold Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
3,989.28
increased by 324.62
1 Week
3,752.52
increased by 87.86
1 Month
3,556.24
decreased by 108.42
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 21, 2010 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2347 | 3.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0806 | 6.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9137 | 60.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1465 | -6.61*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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