V-Lab
Cerence Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
5,697.87
decreased by 132.02
1 Week
6,023.43
increased by 193.54
1 Month
5,071.94
decreased by 757.95
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2019 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0019 | 4.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1398 | 10.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8526 | 65.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0051 | -0.13 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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