V-Lab
Crescent Energy Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
423.23
decreased by 12.17
1 Week
421.16
decreased by 14.24
1 Month
409.85
decreased by 25.55
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 4, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5783 | 0.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1428 | 0.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8572 | 0.43 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.9753 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 1.2971 | 0.03 |
| γ3 | -0.3439 | -0.03 |
| γ4 | 0.1132 | 0.02 |
| γ5 | -0.1739 | -0.06 |
| γ6 | -0.0152 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | 0.1543 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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