Crescent Energy Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
422.63
increased by 38.59
1 Week
372.85
decreased by 11.19
1 Month
359.90
decreased by 24.14
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 4, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5812 | 0.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1430 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8570 | 0.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1.0071 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 1.3373 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.3566 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 0.1205 | 0.01 |
| γ5 | -0.1762 | -0.02 |
| γ6 | -0.0192 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | 0.1633 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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