V-Lab
China Liberal Education Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
28,921,510,000,000,000.00
1 Week
33,098,253,333,333,330.00
1 Month
23,325,007,272,727,270.00
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2020 to Sep 15, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8342 | |
| αARCH | 0.1955 | |
| βGARCH | 0.8045 |
| γ1 | -10.0441 | |
| γ2 | 14.0223 | |
| γ3 | -3.1477 | |
| γ4 | 0.9704 | |
| γ5 | -4.7915 | |
| γ6 | 27.3079 | |
| γ7 | -12.2979 |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8342 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1955 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8045 |
| γ1 | -10.0441 | |
| γ2 | 14.0223 | |
| γ3 | -3.1477 | |
| γ4 | 0.9704 | |
| γ5 | -4.7915 | |
| γ6 | 27.3079 | |
| γ7 | -12.2979 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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