V-Lab
China Liberal Education Holdings Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
38,358,480,000,000,000.00
1 Week
12,787,379,076,000,000.00
1 Month
3,487,576,754,107,272.50
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0045 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6574 | 0.36 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6762 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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