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Methanol Chemicals Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

4,409.07

decreased by 93.45

1 Week

5,037.25

increased by 534.73

1 Month

5,140.07

increased by 637.55

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Methanol Chemicals Co ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 19, 2008 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0865
4.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1805
14.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8119
64.29***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0164
2.34**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days