V-Lab
Methanol Chemicals Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
4,409.07
decreased by 93.45
1 Week
5,037.25
increased by 534.73
1 Month
5,140.07
increased by 637.55
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 19, 2008 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0865 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1805 | 14.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8119 | 64.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0164 | 2.34** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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