V-Lab
Methanol Chemicals Co ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
4,141.22
1 Week
4,692.79
1 Month
5,261.01
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 19, 2008 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1814 | 0.25 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7091 | 41.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1814 | -0.12 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7470 | 0.48 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2530 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.800
Half-life:
3 days
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