Chams Holding Company PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
52.21
decreased by 5.99
1 Week
422.99
increased by 364.79
1 Month
450.45
increased by 392.25
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2008 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1012 trading days (~4.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1012 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6869 | 0.34 |
| αARCH | 0.8299 | 2.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1694 | 1.66* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -75.4920 | -0.29 |
| γ2 | 239.6966 | 0.74 |
| γ3 | -265.5471 | -3.46*** |
| γ4 | 115.4816 | 26.97*** |
| γ5 | -16.5607 | -6.00*** |
| γ6 | 3.8657 | 1.70* |
| γ7 | -3.0501 | -0.58 |
| γ8 | 2.7356 | 0.31 |
| γ9 | -2.0726 | -0.16 |
0.999
Persistence1012d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6869 | 0.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.8299 | 2.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1694 | 1.66* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -75.4920 | -0.29 |
| γ2 | 239.6966 | 0.74 |
| γ3 | -265.5471 | -3.46*** |
| γ4 | 115.4816 | 26.97*** |
| γ5 | -16.5607 | -6.00*** |
| γ6 | 3.8657 | 1.70* |
| γ7 | -3.0501 | -0.58 |
| γ8 | 2.7356 | 0.31 |
| γ9 | -2.0726 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1012 days
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