V-Lab
CFAO Motors Cote D Ivoire Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
8,064.06
increased by 3,619.78
1 Week
4,444.93
increased by 0.65
1 Month
4,330.20
decreased by 114.08
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 5, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2245 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1891 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3342 | 2.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.5189 | -1.01 |
| γ2 | 0.3375 | 0.46 |
| γ3 | 0.9533 | 1.94* |
| γ4 | -0.6480 | -1.17 |
| γ5 | -2.4429 | -3.48*** |
| γ6 | 4.4355 | 6.59*** |
| γ7 | -2.5013 | -5.14*** |
| γ8 | -0.8466 | -1.33 |
| γ9 | 2.2949 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.523
Half-life:
1 days
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