V-Lab
CFAO Motors Cote D Ivoire Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
5,366.05
increased by 801.83
1 Week
4,789.14
increased by 224.92
1 Month
4,805.08
increased by 240.86
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 5, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.24 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0383 | 9.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9709 | 921.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0183 | -3.07*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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