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CFAO Motors Cote D Ivoire Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

5,366.05

increased by 801.83

1 Week

4,789.14

increased by 224.92

1 Month

4,805.08

increased by 240.86

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CFAO Motors Cote D Ivoire ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 5, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.24
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0383
9.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9709
921.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0183
-3.07***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days