V-Lab
Cellavision AB Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
6,255.18
decreased by 227.07
1 Week
5,964.15
decreased by 518.10
1 Month
5,194.87
decreased by 1,287.38
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 28, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9702 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0837 | 1.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9163 | 12.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0052 | -0.05 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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