V-Lab
Cellavision AB Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,321.88
decreased by 483.67
1 Week
5,096.44
decreased by 709.11
1 Month
5,666.43
decreased by 139.12
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 28, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9409 | 4.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0972 | 0.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9028 | 1.75* |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.4083 | -0.24 |
| γ2 | 0.6310 | 0.29 |
| γ3 | -0.3473 | -0.37 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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