V-Lab
Cellecor Gadgets Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
6,422.17
increased by 2,010.34
1 Week
4,963.70
increased by 551.87
1 Month
5,580.01
increased by 1,168.18
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8289 | 12.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2038 | 4.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5005 | 5.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4289 | 4.00*** |
Persistence:
0.704
Half-life:
2 days
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