V-Lab
Cebu Air Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
17,319.02
increased by 10,523.74
1 Week
7,347.14
increased by 551.86
1 Month
3,845.00
decreased by 2,950.28
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 2010 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6487 | 4.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2839 | 4.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6390 | 12.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3260 | 0.93 |
| γ2 | -0.9713 | -1.59 |
| γ3 | 1.1269 | 2.67*** |
| γ4 | -0.3903 | -1.67* |
| γ5 | -0.5246 | -2.78*** |
| γ6 | 0.8950 | 4.48*** |
| γ7 | -0.9250 | -4.91*** |
| γ8 | 1.0635 | 3.92*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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