V-Lab
Capital Bancorp, Inc. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
5,031.53
decreased by 493.05
1 Week
5,594.81
increased by 70.23
1 Month
5,949.06
increased by 424.48
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 2018 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5919 | 4.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1124 | 7.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8669 | 41.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0091 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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