V-Lab
Capital Bancorp, Inc. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
4,776.85
decreased by 368.38
1 Week
5,230.12
increased by 84.89
1 Month
5,267.63
increased by 122.40
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 2018 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5728 | 4.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.1109 | 7.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8686 | 42.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0078 | 0.38 |
0.980
Persistence33d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5728 | 4.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1109 | 7.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8686 | 42.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0078 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
33 days
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