V-Lab
Carisma Therapeutics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
801,156,900,000.00
1 Week
744,529,220,000.00
1 Month
541,487,195,000.00
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5718 | 0.02 |
| αARCH | 0.3039 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.6961 | 0.00 |
| γ1 | -0.3044 | -0.05 |
| γ2 | 0.8137 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -1.0490 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 1.4351 | 0.03 |
| γ5 | -1.9390 | -1.35 |
| γ6 | 5.4186 | 0.06 |
1.000
Persistence77016d
Half-lifeILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5718 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3039 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6961 | 0.00 |
| γ1 | -0.3044 | -0.05 |
| γ2 | 0.8137 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -1.0490 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 1.4351 | 0.03 |
| γ5 | -1.9390 | -1.35 |
| γ6 | 5.4186 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
Other Carisma Therapeutics Inc Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Equities