V-Lab
Carisma Therapeutics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
81,566,880,000.00
decreased by 85,900,000.00
1 Week
75,983,456,000.00
decreased by 5,669,324,000.00
1 Month
52,517,071,052.63
decreased by 29,135,708,947.37
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3589 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2921 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7079 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.4154 | |
| γ2 | 1.9742 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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