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Carisma Therapeutics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

522,166,200,000.00

decreased by 38,875,800,000.00

1 Week

548,136,940,000.00

decreased by 12,905,060,000.00

1 Month

389,535,436,363.64

decreased by 171,506,563,636.36

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Carisma Therapeutics Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2014 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9085
0.02
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2962
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7038
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.3864
0.00
γ21.0485
0.00
γ3-1.3253
0.00
γ41.6003
0.00
γ5-2.0159
-2.20**
γ65.5688
0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

138629 days