V-Lab
Carisma Therapeutics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
522,166,200,000.00
decreased by 38,875,800,000.00
1 Week
548,136,940,000.00
decreased by 12,905,060,000.00
1 Month
389,535,436,363.64
decreased by 171,506,563,636.36
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2014 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9085 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2962 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7038 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.3864 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 1.0485 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -1.3253 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 1.6003 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -2.0159 | -2.20** |
| γ6 | 5.5688 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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