V-Lab
Carisma Therapeutics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
26,650,180,000.00
decreased by 2,728,760,000.00
1 Week
31,322,768,000.00
increased by 1,943,828,000.00
1 Month
24,646,787,450.00
decreased by 4,732,152,550.00
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0228 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2755 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7245 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.2264 | |
| γ2 | 0.6573 | |
| γ3 | -1.2242 | |
| γ4 | 3.7012 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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