Cairn Homes plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
9,095.27
increased by 2,417.52
1 Week
6,633.47
decreased by 44.28
1 Month
5,740.87
decreased by 936.88
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2017 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.1914 | 2.00** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1064 | 2.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8011 | 8.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.4380 | 3.18*** |
| γ2 | -0.6448 | -3.73*** |
| γ3 | 0.3542 | 4.36*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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