Cairn Homes plc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
7,297.32
1 Week
5,288.25
1 Month
5,010.49
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2017 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0843 | 5.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9013 | 203.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0475 | -1.66* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9988 | 862.54*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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