How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	1.4329	1.30
αARCH	0.2987	3.01***
βGARCH	0.6935	8.59***

γ₁	-9.0659	-0.43
γ₂	34.4522	0.66

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	1.4329	1.30
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.2987	3.01***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.6935	8.59***

γ₁	-9.0659	-0.43
γ₂	34.4522	0.66

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Bulls Girisim Sermayesi Yati Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

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